Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 06 2025 21:25:49

AWUS01 KWNH 062125
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-070300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0606
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
524 PM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Areas affected...Southeast KS...Southern MO...Southern IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062120Z - 070300Z

SUMMARY...Repeating thunderstorms training over select portions of
the region could cause flash flooding through this evening.

DISCUSSION...A cold front approaching from the north is helping to
trigger storms just ahead of the front, while strong surface-based
heating and emanating outflows from pre-frontal storms are likely
to ignite more storms this afternoon. RAP mesoanalysis shows there
is an abundance of moisture available from southeast Kansas to as
far east as southern Illinois as PWATs are between 1.9-2.2", which
are above the 90th climatological percentile for early July. The
atmosphere, as depicted on GOES-19 satellite imagery and Doppler
Radar, is quite unstable with MLCAPE values surpassing 2,000 J/kg
for the vast majority of the highlighted region. The mean
850-300mb wind flow is generally progressive with 10-15 knot winds
averaged through the depth of the column, but there remains a
steady fetch of southerly 850mb flow over the ArkLaTex that is
feeding anomalous moisture into the region ahead of the cold
front. With the added help of a passing 500mb vort max, there
remains enough forcing at low-levels and upper-levels to support
additional thunderstorms for the remainder of the afternoon and
into this evening.

MRMS 15-minute radar estimates suggests storms are producing up to
0.50" of rainfall in that span, equating to near 2"/hr rainfall
rates. Most of the region's soils are generally able to handle
rates just below that, but anything over 2" (particuarly in
southern Missouri where soil moisture anomalies are >80% in some
areas), poses a flash flood threat. Given the numerous
thunderstorms throughout the region, some places may receive 2-4"
or rainfall from seeing multiple rounds of storms this afternoon.
Flash flooding is possible, particularly in poor drainage spots
and in urbanized communities sporting a greater concentration of
hydrophobic surfaces.

Mullinax

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-YHDbFiv9-o5mkq5KoZrZs0OdreC3xfLM1YkH4-VS0kROIbjehkAPsN2KkVGmMEoEfdX=
1PdOQguloregCDVPhWq49MI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...ILX...LSX...PAH...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   39908866 39838792 39368766 38268816 37628893=20
            37089011 36799097 36679306 37019412 37119515=20
            37269687 37819725 38199688 38389608 38719391=20
            39079282 39549104 39679000 39818937=20

=3D =3D =3D
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