Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 06 2025 19:33:05

ACUS03 KWNS 061931
SWODY3
SPC AC 061930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC...

....SUMMARY...
A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible
from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from
the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday.

....Discussion...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the mid MO
Valley eastward across much of the Midwest, with a weak surface low
moving from IA/northern MO into IL. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will
remain over the Four Corners states.

Substantial model uncertainty exists regarding convective evolution
and the precise locations of the greatest risk areas over the
central CONUS, and where early day storms may stabilize the air mass
over the Plains. However, moderate instability will exist from the
central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley, suggesting areas of
stronger storms. Morning storms are most likely from KS into MO and
OK, and some of these could produce strong gusts. Otherwise, the
general corridor from northwestern TX into southern IL appears to
coincide with stronger instability and localized wind potential.

To the east, a diurnal surface trough will develop over the Mid
Atlantic, where heating of a moist air mass will yield tall/moist
CAPE profiles in a weak shear environment. Scattered storms clusters
are likely to develop within the uncapped air mass from the central
Carolinas across eastern VA and up the I-95 corridor, with localized
downbursts.

...Jewell.. 07/06/2025

$$

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