Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1577
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 06 2025 18:29:15

ACUS11 KWNS 061828
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061827=20
MIZ000-INZ000-062000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1577
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Areas affected...portions of lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 061827Z - 062000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms will be capable of isolated damaging
gusts this afternoon. Storm organization potential is low, though
some stronger clusters may emerge. A WW is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...As of 1830 UTC, satellite and radar imagery showed
increasing convective development across southern lower MI. This
initial activity has been slow to intensify along a weak cold front
and in proximity to typical diurnal lake-induced boundaries. Driven
largely by strong heating of a moist air mass and weak ascent, this
trend should continue with scattered to numerous storms developing
by early afternoon. Moderate buoyancy (1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE)
will support some more robust updrafts with multi-cell storms. Some
transient storm organization is possible into clusters or weak
bowing structures owing to slightly stronger flow aloft around 25-30
kt. Poor mid-level lapse rates less than 6 C/km do not lend strong
confidence in sustained damaging wind potential. However, occasional
damaging gusts will be possible with outflow winds from the
stronger/more organized clusters. Given the expected increase in
storm coverage this afternoon, at least a localized risk for
occasional damaging gusts is becoming apparent. Conditions will be
monitored for a possible weather watch, though one currently seems
unlikely.

...Lyons/Hart.. 07/06/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!66J9v96ykBPGi_AufrE0GmTaG1RznRDIDtfnb0KIpSvJsB-V-BC_6AuovRe98663z6VF8CZmg=
cxd5rIWuu7-gVNNnRg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   42188622 43738607 44588522 44928448 44938330 44388317
            44128298 43898258 43278249 42678244 41778352 41678510
            41768602 41958621 42188622=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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