Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jul 06 2025 16:16:34 AWUS01 KWNH 061616 FFGMPD TXZ000-062200- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0603 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1215 PM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Areas affected...Northern & Central Texas... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 061615Z - 062200Z SUMMARY...Stubborn mid-level circulation and remaining tropical moisture plume. DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows favorable upper-level pattern is breaking down a bit as 40-50kt jet streak and entrance region shifts southward into central and southern TX with amplifying mid to upper-level ridge across the Permian Basin sliding southeast into the Big Country. As such, very favorable outflow regime is diminishing in influence and expected to slide. A highly stretched/sheared dryier axis exists across far E TX/LA; corralling the remaining (but reducing) overall deep layer moisture plume from the Red River Valley generally along I-35 and westward through the eastern Hill country with values of 2-2.25" remaining though mainly along the southeast quadrant of a persistent/stubborm mid-level circulation centered near Palo Pinto county. The core of the deep layer moisture has seen a recent rapid exhaustion of instability with the ongoing convective cores that are erroding from Tarrent to Bosque county. Surface, VWP and visible imagery analysis shows a convergence axis of the western gradient of the deeper layer mositure from a weak surface low near K6P9 back west across the Edwards Plateau from Callahan to Coke to Sterling county. Here, full insolation is providing surface heating for narrow, skinny unstalbe profiles up to 2000 J/kg; southwesterly to southerly flow along a pressure trof from the low to JCT is providing the convergence necessary for newer development. Rainfall efficiency will continue to be an issue with 2-2.5"/hr probable. However, given the shift of the favorable outflow aloft and stronger southerly inflow, propagation is likey to press cells south and westward toward the Hill Country, but given motion, more than likely limit duration at any given location to scattered 1-3" totals. Still, remaining sensitive soils and rapid run off still may result in possible localized flash flooding conditions. Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7hmIdQpS6k6OVWvSMUAGE5uhIhI47NKh8G5l2yOiFSaQp6wJeXbBwzBHEP1rLwbljxut= JMESAa5Kmq7pnWwbaIPvw_Q$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT... ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC... LAT...LON 33329763 32969728 32109711 31259736 30519817=20 30589966 31000023 31700038 32109983 32369933=20 32629884 32879844 33179827=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .