Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1574
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 06 2025 12:15:39

ACUS11 KWNS 061215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061214=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-061415-

Mesoscale Discussion 1574
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0714 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Areas affected...southwest South Dakota and north-central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 061214Z - 061415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms should persist for another couple of
hours before weakening. Isolated hail and a damaging wind gust or
two will remain possible in the near term. A watch is not currently
expected.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue this morning across southwest
South Dakota along the southwest portion of a remnant MCS that moved
across this region overnight. These thunderstorms appear to be
driven by isentropic ascent focused atop a residual cold pool left
over from the overnight convection. This shows up as strong warm-air
advection centered around 700 MB in regional mesoanalysis.
Mesoanalysis also indicates a rich CAPE reservoir to the southwest
of the ongoing storms, within the thunderstorm source/inflow region,
providing additional buoyancy. With time, diurnal heating should
begin to modify the existing cold pool and weaken the isentropic
ascent/WAA leading to a downward trend in thunderstorm intensity.
Before this weakening occurs, lapse rates do not appear particular
steep this morning per RAP-model forecast soundings, and an
isotherms layer extends upward from the surface to around 800 mb.
This should limit the severe potential to isolated hail and perhaps
a damaging wind gust or two -- realistically only in the most
intense cores.

A watch is not anticipated.

...Marsh/Bunting.. 07/06/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9lt4alW3xQ1CFjs5tdtCivmeS04-ECA--fqRtJytxcJ1Lj6vG3-yYWWvOnbn_1MlquKiJHEOj=
HTz3tmuH0eg-or0P18$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   42700288 43310326 43780292 43860217 43680064 43250033
            42590021 42300061 42170165 42700288=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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