Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jul 06 2025 12:00:50 AWUS01 KWNH 061200 FFGMPD NCZ000-SCZ000-061800- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0602 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 800 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Areas affected...E & SE North Carolina...Ext. E South Carolina... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 061200Z - 061800Z SUMMARY...T.S. Chantal DISCUSSION...GOES-E Vis/IR animation shows a small but still compact circulation to T.S. Chantal with a central dense overcast (CDO) cluster of thunderstorms straddling the eastern NC/SC border as it continues just north of northwest track. This CDO is expected to maintain given fairly solid vertical depth to the cyclone with at least 4-6 more hours before asymmetries evolve due to increased vertical shear profile. Deep layer moisture over 2.5" and strong 30-40kt moisture convergence will continue to support very efficient rainfall processes with 2-2.5"/hr rates across much of the core. Given slow translation speeds, spots of 3-5" are possible in/near the core.=20 A solid banding feature continues to burst with similar cold overshooting tops to -65C though those cores are a bit more transient through the banding feature. Strong confluent inflow along the band in proximity to the Gulf Stream continues to support strong back-building environment in the near term, as such short-term training is possible through Onslow county. However, the dry slot rotating around the southern to southeastern quadrant is starting to impinge on the band, mix and aid northward propagation to reduce local duration of the band. So while intense, the duration should be much less than areas near the CDO and streaks of 1-3" are possible likely limiting flash flooding to urban/poor drainage areas overwhelmed by the shear short-term intensity of the banding features unless that back-building short-term training is ideal but that would be very widely scattered/isolated in nature. Toward 16-18z, the solid warm air advection (WAA) across the coastal plain of NC along with the wrapping dry slot will result into increased elongation of the deeper layer circulation and should result in a slowing of speed, but also a sharpening of a northward trending convergence boundary near the NC/SC 'corner' of Scotland/Marlboro counties. This convergence band will be slow to drift further west and the CDO should break down and expand northward along this axis, increasing rainfall totals and potential for 3-4" totals by 18z. Hydrologically, naturally sandy soils that have been fairly dry with relative soil moisture ratios below 40% and running in the 20-40th percentile for dryness, should uptake much of the rain (with exception of impermeable urban settings) with hourly FFG values of 2-3" and 3-4"/3hrs; only the most persistent/intense rainfall areas are at risk of flash/rapid inundation flooding.=20 Still, a few widely scattered incidents of flash flooding will remain possible through the morning hours most likely near the CDO. Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6wO-pMq0tnoyDjNVt-HI5jczodIfk7nS5rOxkW_JCvgp62ix0zsuQIVEi-h8D1rzX8MT= JNExXIYuq_t2hZhK6XhMeTw$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAE...ILM...MHX...RAH... ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC... LAT...LON 35977784 35667662 35067578 34577621 34447684=20 34427787 34247845 34087893 33977935 34257978=20 34798004 35397977 35897896=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .