Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 06 2025 07:22:11

AWUS01 KWNH 060720
FFGMPD
TXZ000-061115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0600
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
319 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Areas affected...west-central to central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 060717Z - 061115Z

Summary...Localized to widely scattered, small scale regions of
heavy rain are expected to generate localized flash flooding over
the next 3-4 hours from west-central to central TX. Hourly
rainfall of 2 to 4 inches will be possible, overlapping with
portions of the region that have sensitive/saturated soils due to
recent heavy rainfall. However, coverage and organization of this
heavy rainfall threat remains uncertain through 11Z.

Discussion...07Z GOES East 10.3 micron imagery showed a few widely
scattered showers/thunderstorms from west-central TX across the
Edwards Plateau to north-central TX, to the southwest of Fort
Worth. The cyclonic swirl of a remnant low to mid level low was
evident in satellite imagery, centered about 70 miles WSW of Fort
Worth where a thunderstorm containing -40 to -50 C cloud tops was
located. According to SPC mesoanalysis data from 07Z, this cell
was located along a MLCAPE gradient oriented fron north to south
with little to no instability over the eastern third of TX and 500
to 2000 J/kG to the west with varying degrees of CIN present
within. PW values remained high (2+ inches) in a SSW to NNE
orientation, extending from the lower Rio Grande Valley into the
DFW Metroplex, but PW values dropped off to the east and west of
this axis.

With mean southerly low level flow in place over west-central to
east-central TX at 15-25 kt, some degree of overrunning of
Saturday's rain-cooled air over central TX was occurring with
showers forming near a weak elevated convergence axis located
around 850 mb. While the degree of organization of heavy over the
next 3-4 hours is uncertain, deeper layer mean winds are weak,
with the weakest/slowest cell potential near I-35 with LFC-EL mean
wind values of ~5 kt or less. An increase in the coverage of
showers/thunderstorms will is expected over the next few hours
with slow movement supporting very high rainfall rates that have
the potential to reach 2 to 4 inches (locally higher cannot be
ruled out). Given recent heavy rain that has impacted portions of
this region of TX over the past couple of days, renewed areas of
flash flooding are expected, although coverage is expected to
remain limited at this time.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8lFML3QHCZa6rGUE6Bmlrzo-4GUFO72KlQabGUpoF0G4SwV8ovEVMmCIEuLkxO-BvicF=
s2c7D9sSs_BL7UGr0wLJ3Xg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   32939795 32639735 32069725 30879753 30059857=20
            30000005 30180099 30560152 30900165 31210161=20
            31580142 31700085 31770041 31939984 32329915=20
            32739855=20

=3D =3D =3D
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