Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1573
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 06 2025 04:20:04

ACUS11 KWNS 060419
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060419=20
SDZ000-WYZ000-060615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1573
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Areas affected...Black Hills region

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 488...

Valid 060419Z - 060615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 488
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated gusts and marginally severe hail possible for the
next several hours.

DISCUSSION...Long-lived complex of storms that developed over
southern MT have spread southeast across the northern Black Hills
and appear to be encountering less buoyancy as they spread into the
High Plains. Northern plume of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE extends into
extreme southern SD, but nocturnal cooling will eventually force
cloud bases to become more elevated in nature, especially where
temperatures have lowered into the upper 60s/near 70F. Large-scale
support ahead of the MT short-wave trough will continue to encourage
this activity to propagate southeast; however, severe wind gusts
should become increasingly isolated, and hail may struggle to attain
severe levels. At this time a new severe thunderstorm watch does not
appear warranted.

...Darrow.. 07/06/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5LzpyYcwHRPfKkbXfkeylRyecYoxvW9wtj-2TFMc9AtZFt1h_OxCtywfyqSnqcx35TZK-146k=
jAjOUmAA_vN6IlIAik$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...

LAT...LON   44260440 44390275 44840139 43240152 43580439 44260440=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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