Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1571
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 05 2025 22:30:10

ACUS11 KWNS 052230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052229=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-052330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1571
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0529 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Areas affected...parts of southwestern Kansas...southeastern
Colorado...northeastern New Mexico...and the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 052229Z - 052330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of large hail and severe gusts are ongoing
this afternoon across portions of southwestern Kansas, southeastern
Colorado, northeastern New Mexico, and the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles. A watch appears unlikely, however trends will be
monitored.

DISCUSSION...Storms are ongoing to the south of a stationary
boundary draped across west-central Kansas and east-central
Colorado. South of the boundary, moist southeasterly flow and strong
surface heating have resulted in moderate to strong instability
(1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) with steep low-level lapse rates. Flow aloft
is fairly weak, which yields about 25-35 kts of effective bulk
shear, so the multicell character of convection with occasional
transient supercells are expected to continue. The supercell
updrafts may pose a risk for large hail this evening, given the
favorable thermodynamic environment along with straight-line
hodographs. Additionally, the strongest clusters of storms may
produce severe gusts given the steep low-level lapse rates before
the diurnal increase in convective inhibition later this evening. A
watch seems unlikely at this time, but trends will be monitored.

...Supinie/Gleason.. 07/05/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5fEfT2zMSz0KgbagLZekBBoFTulDnsIJKzuCmzaE0De6QJujxM5F6UF7xGm2PQ0lw5mpUPP1h=
u-Pg-RfgC84T5g6YNc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34920384 34850498 35010549 35600547 36670516 37810418
            38450247 38570100 38049977 37609957 36759959 36050065
            35190305 34920384=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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