Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1568
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 05 2025 19:09:33

ACUS11 KWNS 051908
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051907=20
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-052130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1568
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Areas affected...Portions of eastern Iowa and adjacent parts of
Wisconsin and northern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 051907Z - 052130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
intensity through the afternoon hours across the region.  An
isolated damaging wind gust may be possible with the strongest and
most organized storms, but a severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A prefrontal north-northeast to
south-southwest-oriented band of storms across Iowa and Wisconsin
ahead of a midlevel impulse has begun strengthening and deepening
this afternoon.  Relatively clear skies ahead of these storms has
resulted in surface heating and modest destabilization (~1000 J/kg
of MLCAPE per recent mesoanalysis).  Recent VWPs from ARX indicate
around 30 knots of deep-layer shear, supporting the possibility of
at least some storm organization.  The poor midlevel lapse rates,
however, will likely limit the overall severe threat.  With over 30
knots of flow around 1-km AGL and relatively steep low-level lapse
rates, isolated damaging wind gusts may be possible with the
strongest storms.

...Jirak/Hart.. 07/05/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5JqDinve-ZkZqAf5qb3h8ZQzmg51X2HbCm0E4W_GqcNQ6Davxj_1mAbyJzxE3QJDJ_Se0qiRD=
eEgO_HKog3aBGWhAq8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON   41329293 42059216 42759144 43499090 44608998 44998967
            45568852 45248786 44338806 43148877 42608903 41908967
            41529051 41239149 41039253 41029295 41329293=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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