Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1567 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jul 05 2025 19:05:38 ACUS11 KWNS 051905 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051904=20 KSZ000-COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-052100- Mesoscale Discussion 1567 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Areas affected...Far southeast Wyoming into Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20 Valid 051904Z - 052100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...High-based thunderstorms developing within the central Rockies/High Plains will pose a severe wind threat through the afternoon and evening hours. Watch issuance is possible as the severe threat becomes more widespread later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Steady growth of agitated cumulus is noted across central to northern CO in recent GOES imagery with several deeper towers beginning to produce steady lightning flashes within the higher terrain. This comes as diurnally-driven orographic ascent increases within a weakly capped environment, and temperatures in the High Plains begin to approach convective temperatures for surface-based parcels. Any lingering inhibition should be removed within the next 1-2 hours as temperatures continue to warm into the upper 70s and low/mid 80s, resulting in an increase in thunderstorm coverage within the higher terrain and across central to eastern CO. Through mid-afternoon, thunderstorms spreading into - or developing across - the High Plains will begin intensifying within an environment characterized by modest buoyancy (MLCAPE around 250-500 J/kg) but deep, well-mixed boundary layers and 20-30 knots of effective bulk shear. This thermodynamic/kinematic environment will promote strong downdraft accelerations, increasing cold pool production/depth, and eventual upscale growth into one or more organized clusters. While sporadic severe gusts and large hail (most likely near/below 1.25 inch in diameter) will be possible with initially semi-discrete cells, a more robust wind threat may materialize later this afternoon as organized clusters/line segments emerge across far southeast WY into central/eastern CO. Latest CAM solutions continue to hint that gusts between 60-70 mph will be possible with such clusters/lines. Convective trends will be monitored, and watch issuance is possible if/when this scenario becomes more apparent. ...Moore/Hart.. 07/05/2025 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7sNUbc3sbu5nVhhRu9DDp2dtXpsMcVW-9B2R1iSA_mMEy98Iodrpac1sghBD1qJt7IM0gA5vn= FjoZQoBrx0B6VNSD3o$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40280330 39710303 39290249 38920203 38480178 38120181 37940222 38000306 38280384 38550446 38780498 39090532 40890568 41210561 41530542 41730509 41770465 41620423 41270376 40280330=20 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .