Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 05 2025 01:15:25

AWUS01 KWNH 050114
FFGMPD
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-050630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0591
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
914 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Areas affected...Northern Minnesota...Eastern South Dakota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050115Z - 050630Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms containing up to 2"/hr rainfall rates
could result in additional areas of flash flooding this evening.

DISCUSSION...A congealing line of thunderstorms stretching from
just west of the Minnesota Arrowhead to as far south and west as
eastern South Dakota continues to track east. The heaviest
rainfall is occurring along and just south of a warm front that is
oriented parallel to the MN/Canada border. Meanwhile, outflow
boundaries out ahead of the approaching line of storms is helping
to force air parcels vertically while as much as 35-45kts of
effective bulk shear helps to sustain these thunderstorms
updrafts. The environment just west of the Arrowhead on south into
central MN remains unstable with as much as 1,000-2,000 J/kg at
these storms disposal. Most notably, the atmospheric moisture
content remains highly anomalous with the RAP showing a plume of
2" PWATs aloft thanks to a >750 kg/m/s IVT directing anomalous
moisture into the region via the Southern Plains.

Storms should generally remain transient on the southern periphery
of the highlighted area, but training thunderstorms across
northern MN are possible as storms from eastern SD head northeast
over the next few hours. Expect another 1-2" of rainfall within
the highlighted region tonight with localized amounts potentially
approaching 4" where the heaviest set of training convection takes
shape. The flash flooding persists this Fourth of July night in
northern Minnesota with lower-lying, poor drainage areas most
at-risk. Any instances of ponding or flash flooding will become
increasingly harder to identify on roadways after sunset.

Mullinax

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8_DUosAi7kIaw7tU7xtPOxrUoDOrE7_Be2RKQDSBjjBYATpsHEKJvv6Lw_ngIX7no-hK=
zBDpBXPxqZ1qqHKbOyP8H_w$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...DLH...FGF...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON   48559265 48399174 48119135 47649168 47159253=20
            47019271 46099393 45519449 44869550 44699674=20
            44699745 45099755 45459737 46219668 46739597=20
            47389505 48079399 48429331=20

=3D =3D =3D
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