Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 05 2025 01:00:06

ACUS01 KWNS 050100
SWODY1
SPC AC 050058

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts will
continue this evening over the Upper Midwest. Isolated severe gusts
and hail may occur over the central High Plains, with severe gusts
also possible from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern
Great Basin/Rockies.

....Upper Midwest...
Ahead of a midlevel shortwave trough tracking eastward from the
northern Plains into the Upper Midwest, a broken band of strong to
severe thunderstorms is ongoing across parts of northern MN. Ahead
of these storms, a warm/moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints)
is yielding moderately unstable inflow, while 30-40 kt of mostly
front-parallel deep-layer shear (per recent VWP data) is promoting
some cold pool organization. As these storms continue
spreading/developing eastward this evening, damaging wind gusts will
remain possible prior to increasing nocturnal inhibition. Reference
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #486 for more information.

....Central High Plains...
A cluster of organized storms is evolving eastward across western KS
-- ahead of a lee trough/lee cyclone over the CO/KS border. The DDC
00Z sounding sampled a moderately unstable air mass and around 30 kt
of effective shear (with ample low-level hodograph curvature). This
environment should continue to support organized multicell clusters
and embedded supercell structures capable of producing severe wind
gusts and isolated large hail for the next few hours. For additional
information, see MCD #1565.

...Weinman.. 07/05/2025

$$

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