Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 04 2025 20:12:24

AWUS01 KWNH 042012
FFGMPD
TXZ000-050030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0589
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
411 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Areas affected...Texas Hill Country

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 042010Z - 050030Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding looks to continue into the afternoon in
parts of the Hill Country as the MCV slowly moves north and east.
An additional 1-4" of rainfall is possible over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...The MCV responsible for the destructive and fatal
flash flooding event in the Hill Country continues to inch its way
north and east this afternoon. The region remains mired in a
tropical air-mass that sports anywhere from 2.2-2.5" PWATs and
modest southerly 850mb theta-e advection continues to be funneled
out ahead of the MCV, wrapping around its western flank and into
Mason and Llano counties. While instability has decreased, there
remains a subtle 500-850mb mean troughing signal overhead. When
combined with MUCAPE values of 250-500 J/kg (per RAP
mesoanalysis), highly saturated soundings, deep warm cloud layers
(RAP soundings suggest up to 16,000ft), and no capping present,
the MCV will still be capable of triggering additional storms
around the western and southern flank of the MCV. Doppler Radar
shows thunderstorms over Mason County continue to produce
torrential downpours with MRMS 15-minute estimates approaching
0.5-1.0". While storms should gradually diminish this evening, the
exceptionally sensitive soils will make any additional rainfall
unwelcome and likely result in additional flash flooding through
the remainder of the afternoon.

Mullinax

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7sK1_Bo2P9MtB-01CKMiYg8FBtDUUG61a5Pc7B4uZqcWclScLuvXzXHeJ3J0ucal2KzG=
Idx8BRjomY_yMo0MRjnIe1U$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   31639869 31369834 31339832 31069821 30759809=20
            30479802 30229808 30119855 30059900 30149935=20
            30509966 30909997 31279995 31529963 31619916=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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