Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1558
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 04 2025 06:16:35

ACUS11 KWNS 040615
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040614=20
MNZ000-NDZ000-040815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1558
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Areas affected...Northern North Dakota...Far Northwest Minnesota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 485...

Valid 040614Z - 040815Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 485
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to continue for a few more
hours from northern North Dakota into far northwest Minnesota. Large
hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. A watch
extension of 1 to 2 hours could be needed as the 07Z expiration of
WW 485 approaches.

DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar across the northern Plains
shows a line of strong thunderstorms located near the
North-Dakota-Canada border, to the northwest of Grand Forks.
Short-term model forecasts suggest the line will move eastward along
the border for a few more hours, and will likely affect far
northeast North Dakota and far northwest Minnesota. This line is
located along a sharp gradient of moderate instability, which
combined with 25 to 30 knot of 0-6 km shear evident on the Grand
Forks WSR-88D VWP, should support an isolated wind-damage and hail
threat.

Further to the west-southwest, a relatively isolated severe storm is
ongoing to the west of Minot, North Dakota. This storm is located
along an axis of moderate instability, with the RAP estimating
MLCAPE near 2000 J/Kg. The storm is likely being supported by
large-scale ascent associated with a subtle shortwave trough moving
through western North Dakota. RAP mesoscale analysis currently shows
a pocket of very steep low to mid-level lapse rates over much of
North Dakota, where 850 to 500 mb lapse rates are in the 7.5 to 8
C/Km range. This, combined with moderate deep-layer shear should
support a wind-damage threat over the next couple of hours.

...Broyles/Smith.. 07/04/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8kGKNcJM3C3vKG8Gi09eqadAmWuMpgfaZU5pMEdFcBsEeERD7nhhSHDy9FIopCNdiiEbonbWf=
aqjCHmO1hhU29B3C4Y$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   48339642 48159753 48009871 47850037 47800147 48030186
            48300182 48580166 48840119 48930041 48989817 49009725
            48959660 48829631 48589624 48339642=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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