Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1557
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 04 2025 04:28:44

ACUS11 KWNS 040428
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040428=20
MNZ000-NDZ000-040600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1557
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Areas affected...Portions of northeastern North Dakota and far
northwestern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 485...

Valid 040428Z - 040600Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 485
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe risk may spread/develop into parts of
northeastern ND over the next few hours -- within Severe
Thunderstorm Watch #485.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms that has become outflow dominant in
southern Manitoba is tracking slowly east-southeastward toward
north-central/northeast ND. Ahead of these storms, additional
elevated convection is developing at the nose of a strengthening
30-40 kt low-level jet. Over the next few hours, the convective
cluster and downstream development may merge and track
east-southeastward along the northeastern periphery of an
instability gradient extending from northeastern ND into
northwestern MN. Strong low-level warm advection accompanying the
low-level jet and around 40-50 kt of effective shear may support a
loosely organized cluster capable of producing damaging winds and
sporadic large hail. Overall convective evolution remains uncertain,
though a spatial extension of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #485 in
northeastern ND and perhaps extreme northwest MN may become
necessary.

...Weinman.. 07/04/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4RyGTpunl2uyFa7wn7CufYmR6IJ9_4DSZnT1O61T61PbHC7XlFN0TuekLgjC5mTayPHwMmbxz=
hs1-VwnqKa_KNcCrmA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   48189851 48630015 48740099 48940122 49140107 49189993
            49049688 48849656 48129657 47969712 48189851=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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