Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 04 2025 04:05:47

AWUS01 KWNH 040405
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-040900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0583
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1205 AM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Areas affected...western to southern WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 040404Z - 040900Z

SUMMARY...Training of thunderstorms over western to southern WI
will likely produce a few areas of flash flooding through 09Z with
hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches, though localized hourly rates
near 3 inches in an hour will be possible. Some 3 to 5 inch totals
may result.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from 0345Z showed a NW to SE axis of
thunderstorms extending along/north of a slow moving warm front
which extended from just north of MSP to just south of MKE at 03Z.
The environment over the region contained 2000 to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE
and PWs of 1.5 to 1.8 inches, sampled well by the 00Z MPX
sounding. Southwesterly 850 mb winds of 20-25 kt were observed via
VAD wind plots from KMPX and KARX, overrunning the frontal
boundary with mean steering flow oriented parallel to the front, a
favorable setup for training. In addition, a remnant MCV near the
central MN/WI border appears to be contributing to lift across the
region.

Warm advection driven thunderstorms are likely to continue across
WI over the next few hours with southwesterly winds at 850 mb
remaining a similar magnitude overnight, but with some slow
advancement of the front toward the northeast expected. Congealing
of thunderstorms may promote some southward motions toward
southern WI, but upstream redevelopment will remain possible with
continued potential for training from NW to SE and hourly rainfall
likely to be in the 1 to 2 inch range, although one cannot rule
out locally higher rates of 2 to 3 inches in an hour. Flash flood
guidance of largely 2 to 3 inches in 3 hours  across the region
should be exceeded in a few locations, resulting in a likely flash
flood threat over the next 3-5 hours.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9arsfwhKDLsedHSW03BQldKlP-9emyfcpOJrDAXgM2y7JlKP2fA3bZCTxixiW59y5JEc=
WITwNCa8GMOgnK-NJUDQATY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...GRB...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON   46279187 45479087 44979031 44188916 43388843=20
            42658862 42578930 43149036 43979162 44649253=20
            45269293 46139273=20

=3D =3D =3D
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