Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1554
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 03 2025 22:39:05

ACUS11 KWNS 032238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032238=20
VTZ000-NYZ000-040015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1554
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0538 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Areas affected...parts of Vermont and upstate New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 032238Z - 040015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts are possible this evening across
parts of Vermont and upstate New York with storms ahead of a cold
front. A watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Clear skies have allowed a corridor of instability to
develop ahead of a cold front across parts of Vermont and upstate
New York, and a few storms have developed along this front. VAD wind
profiles from KCXX indicate somewhat weak deep-layer shear, leading
to multicell clusters and line segments observed on radar. Regional
RAP profiles indicate nearly dry-adiabatic lapse rates in the lowest
2 km AGL. This, when combined with the modest low-level flow, may
produce a threat for damaging gusts this evening, particularly with
clusters of convection. However, the coverage is expected to be
sparse, and the threat is expected to wane with the loss of
sunlight. Therefore, a watch is not anticipated with this activity.

...Supinie/Guyer.. 07/03/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6qxHrAy_e7ZP3Vs6oooRCVPJoiR4r-QnTopVLZzsl42-BNujdrbDQGwVBs4nPcdEdvm7cnqzl=
2SAhVWw07TEtzG-i2s$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   43817337 43407449 43337576 43677625 44057619 44217599
            44477488 44937354 45017317 45067281 45027242 44637235
            44247264 44047288 43817337=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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