Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1550
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 03 2025 19:19:01

ACUS11 KWNS 031918
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031918=20
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-NDZ000-032145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1550
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Areas affected...Central Minnesota...far northeast Iowa...and
central/western Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 031918Z - 032145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms possible posing a threat for severe
wind/hail possible this afternoon/evening

DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery shows a remnant MCV traversing
southern portions of North Dakota. Ahead of this feature, weak
convection has persisted throughout the morning into the early
afternoon. SPC mesoanalysis shows a destabilizing environment
downstream of this ongoing activity, with MLCAPE values now
exceeding 15000-2000 J/kg. Visible satellite supports this notion,
particularly along a northwest to southeast oriented warm/moist axis
(weak warm front) where dew point temperatures are nearing 65-70 F
south of the boundary. The aforementioned MCV is aiding in
enhancement of deep-layer shear, ranging from 30-40 kt, across the
region.

Continued insolation across the region should support further
destabilization, which may lead to a re-intensification of the
ongoing activity entering west-central Minnesota where MLCIN is
relatively lower. Additional storm formation is also possible
downstream (as supported by the latest HRRR runs) by late
afternoon/evening. Isolated instances of severe wind/hail are
possible should this occur. Watch issuance is not anticipated at
this time, though convective trends will continue to be monitored.

...Karstens/Mosier.. 07/03/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4R_dNvrV8SnDnx5ibvBaPDAUr4e7HisJ_yjQh2IT2op4s_fTSHBDr1Yn0Jh6M8mjfzR483x6W=
vBRip2WaV0gLwXmy_M$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...
ABR...

LAT...LON   46519273 45959167 45089023 44018887 42978895 42398954
            42199033 41989141 42179225 42789314 43709370 44689470
            44919517 45119574 45419624 46019657 46729658 47309626
            47369549 47129445 46519273=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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