Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1548
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 03 2025 16:58:09

ACUS11 KWNS 031657
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031657=20
MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-031900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1548
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Areas affected...the Northeast

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 031657Z - 031900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered damaging winds and isolated severe
hail will be possible as initially isolated storms increase across
parts of the Northeast. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is
likely.

DISCUSSION...Initial sustained storm development is underway across
southwest NY, with scattered agitated CU over northeast PA and
southeast NY. A plume of moderate buoyancy will expand eastward from
western/central PA and southwest NY, aiding in strengthening
convective intensity as storms mature. A strong mid-level westerly
jetlet atop already veered and weak low-level winds will yield
hodograph elongation. Combined with weak low-level ascent, the setup
should support generally semi-discrete cells with transient
mid-level updraft rotation. As such, isolated severe hail will be
possible and the overall coverage of the convective wind threat
might be subdued until late-afternoon clustering becomes more
probable.

...Grams/Mosier.. 07/03/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_oIX5WwxVAQuKmtAuzqWfrQJD7OZx9Lt88Bra7psdY14pTbjH_OX4F9Sa_Ad1Jodsf8tugYXm=
dIfdyT9ux0e-cDR6uM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON   42777681 42857547 43117355 42927285 42507218 42057209
            41497245 40917352 40807456 41037586 41427685 42297745
            42777681=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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