Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1547
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 03 2025 16:17:58

ACUS11 KWNS 031617
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031617=20
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-031815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1547
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Areas affected...New England

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 483...

Valid 031617Z - 031815Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 483
continues.

SUMMARY...Primary severe potential, from isolated to scattered
damaging winds, will be largely focused across central/eastern Maine
and far southeast New Hampshire. Potential exists for a separate
area of storms over the Champlain Valley to intensify downstream
later this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A broken thin band of quasi-linear convection is
ongoing from northern ME to the NH/MA border area. The recent
consolidation into linear structures should modulate the earlier
large hail threat. But this will support an increasing damaging wind
risk as storms impinge on a warm/unstable boundary layer downstream.
Low to mid 80s surface temperatures combined with dew points holding
in the low to mid 60s is yielding modest buoyancy with MLCAPE of
500-1500 J/kg. Strong gusts will be possible as this initial round
spreads off the coast/into NB.

Farther west, stabilization in the wake of this leading convection
will yield a lull in severe potential. But the primary lobe of
ascent supporting convection across the Champlain Valley into QC
should spread across at least northern VT/NH into western ME through
late afternoon. There should be an adequate gap of destabilization
between the two regimes for a marginal severe threat, although there
is below-average confidence on whether sufficient recovery will
occur for a scattered damaging wind threat.

...Grams.. 07/03/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4cyAXQ0cNy1y2R9DwRpQId5AHFO9zj1nkFVYZlA21-0JwEn3lf_2Mt1BGAI13HA7Jy9dhORCo=
g1ZAiE4HNuwH4P8ODM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...

LAT...LON   45007271 46187063 46966808 46706719 45206680 44646705
            42387090 42437174 43017147 43327174 43607241 43777324
            44017400 44487354 45007271=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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