Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1545
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 03 2025 04:52:48

ACUS11 KWNS 030452
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030452=20
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-030645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1545
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025

Areas affected...Southeast SD...northeast NE...northwest IA...and
far southwest MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 030452Z - 030645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated instances of severe hail will be possible with
the stronger storms tonight.

DISCUSSION...In response to weak low-level warm advection, isolated
thunderstorms are developing along the northeastern periphery of a
large-scale ridge. Here, 30-40 kt of midlevel northwesterly flow is
yielding an elongated/mostly straight hodograph (around 30 kt of
effective shear). This wind profile, coupled with an influx of steep
midlevel lapse rates atop a shallow low-level stable layer, may
support a couple elevated/transient supercell structures -- capable
of producing isolated severe hail. Given the weak forcing for
ascent, storm longevity and overall evolution is uncertain.

...Weinman/Guyer.. 07/03/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6vLVWWN9UQJWB4_7bdIRlQvSYSc3YLttv87H6Oo-QQPoj-jhDwe0-bghlOiBHka3eg6gxHZ4T=
rDAPzePyu7mAujV-ms$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF...

LAT...LON   42229747 43049896 43489895 44059853 44239784 44049706
            43639595 43099519 42469511 42069558 41969661 42229747=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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