Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 02 2025 00:58:21

ACUS01 KWNS 020058
SWODY1
SPC AC 020056

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms should continue this evening over
parts of the northern/central Plains, with large hail the primary
risk. Isolated damaging winds will also remain possible for a couple
more hours across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.

....Northern/Central Plains...
Multiple supercells developed this afternoon/evening across parts of
the northern/central High Plains, generally along/east of a surface
lee trough. Although low-level flow remains fairly modest per area
VWPs, sufficient west-northwesterly mid/upper-level flow will
continue to foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and updraft
organization. Persistent supercells will pose mainly a large hail
threat as they move slowly south-southeastward for at least the next
several hours. An increasing risk for isolated severe winds may also
develop given the well-mixed boundary layer and gradual upscale
growth anticipated. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 1538 for more
details on the short-term severe threat across this region. A
separate area of mainly elevated convection may develop later
tonight across a broader portion of SD in a low-level warm advection
regime. This activity may have an isolated hail threat.

....Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast...
Loosely organized convection should continue this evening from parts
of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast along/ahead of a cold front. An
isolated threat for damaging winds should persist where pockets of
moderate instability remain. But, generally modest deep-layer shear
and a gradually stabilizing boundary layer with the loss of daytime
heating will likely lead to a gradual reduction in the overall
severe threat this evening.

...Gleason.. 07/02/2025

$$

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