Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1538
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 02 2025 00:45:43

ACUS11 KWNS 020044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020043=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-020215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1538
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025

Areas affected...portions of western South Dakota...western
Nebraska...and eastern Wyoming

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 482...

Valid 020043Z - 020215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 482
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms, including a few supercells are
ongoing and expected to continue this evening. Large hail and
damaging winds are likely to continue.

DISCUSSION...Across WW 482, several clusters of severe storms are
ongoing and expected to continue this evening. Several supercells
have organized across southern SD with reports of hail and damaging
gusts. The environment downstream remains favorable for supercells
with 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30-40 kt of bulk shear. Hail
appears to be the most likely threat given the supercell mode.
However, some upscale growth has already been noted, and is expected
to continue this evening with consolidating outflows. This would
support an increasing risk for damaging winds, given MLCL height of
1700-2000 m and DCAPE of 1500+ J/kg.

Additional strong to occasional severe storms may continue across
western SD and far southeast MT. With less buoyancy and increasing
MLCINH, confidence in a sustained severe risk is lower but hail and
damaging gusts remain possible.

...Lyons.. 07/02/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-ex6mZzbFOmsDPY1YRz3K9R2WDWtzw40H1y1dZIoHDvVT5UFGZflYwhD1f3mxLJtd2dsOiJs7=
9BHr_mra-dPB_fYhjU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   44940474 45040166 43720023 42040028 41110062 40920207
            40870286 41120327 41210336 44940474=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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