Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1529
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 01 2025 15:49:17

ACUS11 KWNS 011549
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011548=20
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-011745-

Mesoscale Discussion 1529
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1048 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025

Areas affected...the Mid-Atlantic States

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 011548Z - 011745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...An increasing damaging wind threat and Severe Thunderstorm
Watch issuance are expected this afternoon

DISCUSSION...Convection has been slowly building across the central
Appalachians, ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough that is
progressing east across the Upper OH Valley. While there is some
near-term uncertainty of how quickly this initial activity will
strengthen amid weak DCAPE, the downstream airmass east of the Blue
Ridge is destabilizing well as surface temperatures have already
warmed into the upper 80s to low 90s. This will yield an uptick in
convective intensity as clusters impinge on the Piedmont to Coastal
Plain where mid 70s surface dew points are pervasive. Although
lower-level winds will remain weak and predominately veered,
moderate mid to upper-level westerlies will support organized
multicells capable of producing multiple strong to isolated severe
gust swaths. Scattered damaging winds appear likely towards mid to
late afternoon.

...Grams/Mosier.. 07/01/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5o6tCwZiu33rjuJv2fKi3QZP51xRopNWyQd4O7Pya7lC2GExhodCcw3P64TWEauLPfcu-GljF=
V02a4BjXiRqMPZzZgc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   40117372 39117452 37967617 37757901 38627929 40127907
            40667848 40497568 40117372=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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