Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jun 30 2025 22:39:43 AWUS01 KWNH 302238 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-010340- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0561 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 637 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Areas affected...Southern Oklahoma...North and Northwest Texas... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 302240Z - 010340Z SUMMARY...Initially slow moving, but very efficient thunderstorms with 2-2.5"/hr rates will slowly propagate south and westward with storm mergers and localized spots of 3-4" resulting in scattered incidents of possible flash flooding DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um EIR shows explosive convective development along the stalled outflow boundary from this morning's convective complex from Hughes to Comanche county. MLCAPEs to 4000 J/kg and total PWats of 2" were trapped along the northwestern edge of the sub-tropical ridge over much of Texas into the northwest Gulf, the return flow axis remained nearly aloft and generally parallel to the surface outflow boundary though the dip (positive tilt) in the northern stream synoptic trough has helped with support a 50kt jet with broad right entrance ascent across much of the TX Panhandle into central OK. Southerly flow across TX but northern flow out of KS/N OK has helped to provide ample directional convergence but recent uptick to 20kts from th south/southwest provided the deep layer convergence to result in the entire line developing. CIRA LPW shows the convergence is further increasing flux and TPW values of 2-2.25" that deep layer vertical moisture flux will support very efficient rates up to 2-2.5"/hr. That directional shear and proximity to the jet also support a bit of effective bulk shear toward 20-25kts for modest organization to keep the downdrafts fully collapsing into the updrafts and with weak dry air only a few hundred J/kg will be utilized for cold pool generation.=20 Combine that with weak steering flow through depth toward the east at 5kts; propagation will likely be mostly south and west into the 15-20kts of confluent boundary layer flow. So a hour or so should support localized totals up to 3-4" before dropping south and west.=20 Interaction with cells developing along outflow boundaries from older complex over the Permian Basin will increase potential for mergers and storm scale interaction to help cells increase totals as the complex drops southward into northern TX as well. FFG values are reduced further north, so best potential will be early before moving into higher FFG values along/south of the Red River, but localized flash flooding is still possible . Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!894nxsMkMuuDXxCipbCVd18CuWJnYxbuetLGZlXB_WmMGDLjcTLYAxpg7GQQxdVizjEu= vbagok35x2XvtmbL2rlIN6w$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT...TSA... ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 35319714 35099567 34389521 33349583 32929803=20 32589952 32920040 33380108 33890099 34350044=20 35069890=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .