Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1527
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 30 2025 21:01:46

ACUS11 KWNS 302101
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302101=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-302230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1527
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0401 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Areas affected...portions of central/southwest Oklahoma into
northwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 302101Z - 302230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms expected in the next 1-2 hours, with a
risk for at least isolated damaging winds/severe hail. Watch
issuance not anticipated but conditions will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows a zone of rapidly developing
convection along a residual outflow boundary across
central/southwest Oklahoma. Additional convection is now deepening
across parts of northwest Texas. Rich low-level moisture (70s+ Tds)
and surface temperatures into the low 90s are contributing to a very
unstable environment south of the boundary, characterized by MLCAPE
values exceeding 3000 J/kg. The expectation is for scattered storms
to develop along this corridor in the next 1-2 hours, posing a risk
for at least isolated damaging wind gusts and severe hail. At this
time, watch issuance is not anticipated though convective trends
will be closely monitored should a watch be needed.

...Karstens/Hart.. 06/30/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6zPEaJUsdr6Or_aQt_Bh_8N2XQdhduuFn2kYwTT1f7j3hlATq0n1AcGzBRAqmD3UAzo3KLQ0X=
H5woQg93utCz7AOhiE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   35009602 34469706 33869797 33009923 32890003 33490052
            34599918 35419803 35819668 35659595 35009602=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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