Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jun 30 2025 17:24:54 AWUS01 KWNH 301724 FFGMPD COZ000-NMZ000-302200- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0558 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 124 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Areas affected...Central New Mexico and Far Southern Colorado Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 301718Z - 302200Z Summary...Thunderstorms are initiating over the mountains of far southern Colorado and central New Mexico in the late morning, and should continue to develop into the early afternoon. Any storms are likely to be very slow moving to nearly stationary, which will pose a threat for localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding wherever the storms develop. Burn scars in New Mexico would be particularly vulnerable if storms develop nearby, but a threat of flash flooding will exist across the region in general. Discussion...As of 11 AM MDT, thunderstorms were beginning to develop in the favored mountain locations from south-central Colorado through central New Mexico. This is expected to continue over the next several hours as convective temperature is achieved, and hi-res model guidance is consistent in showing a high probability of storms through at least 4 PM MDT (22Z), but possibly through the remainder of the afternoon. Available moisture and instability is not particularly anomalous in this case, so the threat of localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding should be driven more by extremely slow storm motions. Deep layer mean wind is generally around 5 knots or less, and simulated reflectivity on the hi-res guidance shows storms more-or-less anchored to near their development locations for at least a couple hours. So even though the instantaneous to 30-min rain rates may not be exceptional, heavy rain could be sustained long enough to produce localized rainfall maxima in excess of 2 inches, especially in New Mexico. This could be enough to lead to flash flooding based on flash flood guidance values. Burn scar locations or urban areas would be particularly vulnerable, but any impact would be dependent on storms developing close enough to those locations. Lamers ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_Pui8VAzLlFJfLM41QczHK4q_fnzpu01iBc6LEDgqj3nXeZO_LBX6r0ijlHxJGipTUdg= hGEue2RB7LwECyNxzNd3aCg$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...PUB... ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 37730678 37410603 37500499 36850473 36080513=20 35390520 34810557 34180552 33490550 32820574=20 32830625 34060655 34900662 35610698 36200727=20 36780689 37510728=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .