Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1522
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 30 2025 16:10:19

ACUS11 KWNS 301608
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301607=20
PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-301800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1522
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1107 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Areas affected...parts of the Mid-Atlantic States

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 301607Z - 301800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds from sporadic strong gusts along
with small hail will be possible with slow-moving, scattered
thunderstorms through late afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Convective development is increasing across western PA,
downstream of an eastward-moving MCV over central OH, and along the
lee of the central Appalachians across eastern WV. Overall
thermodynamic environment appears fairly ubiquitous, outside of the
higher terrain, with surface temperatures in the 80s and dew points
in the upper 60s to mid 70s. 12Z soundings sampled poor mid to upper
lapse rates and nearly saturated profiles east of the Appalachians,
with somewhat drier and not quite as poor lapse rates across the
Upper OH Valley. This combined with modest deep-layer shear will
probably modulate a potentially greater downburst threat. It may be
that some degree of loose clustering will be necessary for strong
gust production capable of more than localized tree damage.

...Grams/Hart.. 06/30/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_IVY1yPNW5wXnG4jt695nzSI34zRnx8WCCc0YMsR8oFWUnPSjZ3BykCO_NylTfQJpE70QfuLl=
5zpCzNBBpidmP5OU1s$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   40547955 41557969 41817851 41707687 41427589 40507540
            39887554 39047642 38477775 38437845 38517898 38907937
            39827936 40547955=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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