Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1520
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 30 2025 06:58:56

ACUS11 KWNS 300658
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300658=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-300900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1520
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Areas affected...Southern Nebraska...Northern Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 480...

Valid 300658Z - 300900Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 480
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible over the
next few hours across southern Nebraska and northern Kansas.

DISCUSSION...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are currently
ongoing near a pocket of moderate instability from south-central
Nebraska into northwest Kansas, where the RAP currently has MLCAPE
in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Steep mid-level lapse rates are
contributing to the instability. RAP forecast soundings at 07Z near
Hastings, Nebraska have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km with
0-6 km shear around 30 knots. This should support a severe threat
over the next few hours. Isolated supercells and short intense line
segments will likely be capable of producing severe wind gusts and
hail. The threat may become more isolated as instability decreases
across the region late tonight.

...Broyles.. 06/30/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_Njugp8ellv_sMmLWYSjyNN8FzVPhdxb-3vIr-KLdOvc8QKpZC_A6gjpU0LA3M0ZvtQdMeR7r=
pxW4YcRPPSyQSt6I10$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   40679989 40030079 39540120 39320124 39100106 38970046
            38969930 39249809 39629770 40329749 40869745 41249788
            41359821 41339874 41299895 41079936 40679989=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.