Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1518
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 30 2025 03:11:41

ACUS11 KWNS 300311
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300310=20
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-300415-

Mesoscale Discussion 1518
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Areas affected...Central High Plains

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479...

Valid 300310Z - 300415Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms will propagate
across the central High Plains over the next several hours. Wind and
hail continue to be a threat.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are gradually coalescing across
the central High Plains of northwestern NE/extreme southeast WY.
This activity has not yet developed a significant cold pool, but
further precip expansion is possible as the northern Plains upper
trough appears to be influencing this activity. As northwesterly
mid-level flow strengthens across western NE, ongoing convection
should continue to propagate southeast. Latest short-range model
guidance, including most HREF members, suggest upscale growth into
the early-morning hours, and an MCS should emerge. A new severe
thunderstorm watch may be needed downstream to account for this
scenario.

...Darrow.. 06/30/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8ja4qKXopokheS9QaLsPdF_nAgdkmdvZz4vtABTedFB9zQx8uTdxI44rV7k8extccBV9gy4uK=
46IuOvd_K6uAbUJyLo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41980006 40719987 40140123 40850349 41590448 41810219
            42520066 41980006=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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