Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1517
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 30 2025 01:46:40

ACUS11 KWNS 300146
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300146=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-300315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1517
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0846 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Kansas into northeast Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478...

Valid 300146Z - 300315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478
continues.

SUMMARY...Storm clusters will continue to develop southward along
and to the cool side of an outflow boundary, with the potential for
isolated severe outflow gusts and large hail.

DISCUSSION...Convection has increased the past 1-2 hours on the
immediate cool side of a northwest-southeast oriented outflow
boundary from northeast OK into southern KS.  Though the boundary
layer is beginning to cool with the loss of insolation, a modest
increase in south-southwesterly low-level jet will help maintain
ascent atop the cold pool.  Given the environment with large
buoyancy on the east edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates, a
storm cluster should be able to persist on the cool side of the
outflow (where vertical shear is stronger) from southeast KS into
northeast OK.  Damaging outflow winds will be the main threat,
though isolated large hail will also be possible with the strongest
storms.

...Thompson.. 06/30/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_qmpYhaPpGq5Wc5wLiP69KkXpwlKWY2xhWitaRwP2-B35fM-V1m1afjvUUSI_pi7bxYKuP4LI=
xq6qvjly0Qu6gvqLGw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   36469717 36899738 37249748 37439730 37259567 36949541
            36369503 35989535 35929575 35909633 36039682 36469717=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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