Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1516
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 29 2025 23:10:17

ACUS11 KWNS 292310
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292309=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-300115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1516
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0609 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Areas affected...Central High Plains

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479...

Valid 292309Z - 300115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms will continue this
evening. Hail and wind remain the primary threats.

DISCUSSION...Mid-level flow has increased a bit within the base of
the northern Plains upper trough. Latest data suggests 6km flow is
around 30-35kt across northern portions of ww479, but noticeably
weaker into northern CO. Over the next several hours, this flow
should gradually veer into the northwest, and ongoing convection is
expected to more readily advance downstream across the central High
Plains, well north of a front that is draped across northwestern KS
into northeast CO. While any semblance of a LLJ will remain confined
to western KS, this activity appears to be aided in part by the
upper trough. Latest radar data exhibits at least 4-5 longer-lived
updrafts from southwestern SD into extreme northern CO. Most of
these are generating severe hail. With time this activity should
advance downstream into north central NE where a new severe
thunderstorm watch may be warranted later this evening.

...Darrow.. 06/29/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8jGQV_uAPKMhdlXDNlqojBvKcB6t0qMOQp4nTHANShC4cdVkEoJxuJkG5V7TadTGLj3mlNlWm=
IaNJGGznkNc7CvDZ6E$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   43960495 43950255 39110273 39120498 43960495=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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