Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1515
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 29 2025 22:45:46

ACUS11 KWNS 292244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292244=20
WIZ000-300015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1515
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0544 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Areas affected...Southern Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477...

Valid 292244Z - 300015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development will remain possible along and
south of an aggregate outflow boundary, but the threat for wind
damage will become more marginal with time.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are ongoing along an aggregate outflow
boundary that is moving slowly southward into southern WI.  Vertical
shear is quite weak and little storm organization/persistence is
expected, but the stronger storms could still produce isolated wind
damage given precipitation loading and steep low-level lapse rates
along and south of the outflow.  The limited severe threat appears
to be covered by the current watch configuration, and no additional
watches/extensions appear needed this evening.

...Thompson.. 06/29/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!941yRZZufaGpreWHk_F6l1nWmYDr78JboogwPfhX6QokNMHtWMaQN3HFePdLLj0VHpq86AWya=
QpfLv-UVbPbjjGiOIE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...

LAT...LON   42768932 42679043 42899109 43259105 43468968 43838870
            44228804 44108781 43808802 43158875 42768932=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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