Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1514
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 29 2025 22:29:10

ACUS11 KWNS 292229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292228=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-300000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1514
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0528 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Areas affected...Southwest Missouri...southeast Kansas...northwest
Arkansas and northeast Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478...

Valid 292228Z - 300000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478
continues.

SUMMARY...A thunderstorm cluster and associated cold pool will
spread southward toward northwest Arkansas, and additional storm
development is possible along the trailing outflow boundary into
southeast Kansas.

DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm cluster produced an outflow gust of 55
kt at Springfield MO in the past 30 minutes, and local radar radar
suggest a continuation of the severe-wind threat to the southeast of
Springfield.  The storms will likely be strongest near and just
northeast of the merger of two cold pools across Christian/Taney
County, and the larger-scale cold pool will continue southward into
northwest AR by 2230-23z.  Strong buoyancy is present south of the
ongoing storms where vertical shear is weak, so the cluster will
tend toward more outflow dominance over time.  In the interim, a few
severe gusts will be possible and could spread a little south of the
watch into AR, though the need for a downstream watch is uncertain.

Farther west, some convection is attempting to deepen along the
northwest edge of the cold pool, coincident with a small/remnant MCV
from near and just north of Wichita KS.  Surface temperatures in the
low 90s with dewpoints near or above 70 F are supporting MLCAPE in
excess of 3000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition.  Isolated
severe storm development may occur in the next 1-2 hours as the MCV
interacts with the outflow boundary, in an environment with
marginally sufficient vertical shear for semi-organized clusters
and/or some marginal supercell structure.  The watch may need to be
extended in area by a tier of counties to the west if the KS
convection shows signs of intensification.

...Thompson.. 06/29/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6wB_EtjfWmfz2rjj_IgNMaIPJP1ANXgc1FZIvNIbDW-f7dFy4rPA9VMvgrtB0hDUqgMIZyX7h=
XLruo7s-6A2mzHFbcI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON   36659346 37099258 36889213 36439215 36079259 35999346
            35989446 36249554 36629634 37239684 37649703 37899704
            37969655 37949630 37469596 36879502 36679432 36659346=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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