Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1513
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 29 2025 20:40:04

ACUS11 KWNS 292038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292037=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-292200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1513
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Areas affected...southeast Kansas...southwest Missouri...and far
northeast Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478...

Valid 292037Z - 292200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon.
Isolated wind damage should be the primary threat.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop/loosely organize
across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri this afternoon along
the leading edge of an advancing cold pool from overnight
convection. The airmass along and ahead of these storms is strongly
to extremely unstable, with MUCAPE values in excess of 5000 J/kg
across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with very little
convective inhibition remaining.=20

The degree of instability and loose organization should continue a
severe threat through the afternoon despite the presence of meager
deep-layer shear. The extreme instability, and precipitable water
values near 2 inches in the vicinity of these thunderstorms should
lead to continued water-loaded downdrafts and a reinforcement of the
cold pool, leading to continued thunderstorm development. An
isolated severe wind gust or wind damage will be possible this
afternoon, especially on or near area lakes where frictional effects
will be minimized.

...Marsh.. 06/29/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_SNNLYcza3muKizmT7B63-coOQX2-5YUXNBeoxZXzUegz6vJBcrcWhuJuULkFY-cmeV1p2Zjw=
u41sWuEF1PuU6zcerY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON   37009649 37569652 37619597 38029590 38019464 38059457
            38049405 38199404 38199350 38089350 38059303 37909306
            37909321 37749320 37739314 37449318 37429306 37139308
            37089290 36849290 36839277 36519279 36499461 36679463
            36669501 36539500 36519531 36599532 36599579 37009579
            37009649=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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