Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1512
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 29 2025 20:22:59

ACUS11 KWNS 292022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292022=20
WIZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-292145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1512
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Areas affected...Portions of Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477...

Valid 292022Z - 292145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue this afternoon in a strongly
unstable airmass. Large hail and isolated wind damage are possible
with the strongest thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue along a diffuse frontal zone
across Wisconsin this afternoon in response to strong diurnal
heating and  minimal inhibition. Despite most-unstable CAPE values
in excess of 2000 J/kg, these thunderstorms have shown little
organization nor longevity -- likely owing to the weak deep-layer
shear.=20

Given the degree of instability, freezing heights are sufficiently
low to support an isolated large hail threat through the afternoon,
especially with the strongest thunderstorm cores. Additionally, the
potential for isolated wind damage may occur with any strong
thunderstorm updraft collapse.

...Marsh.. 06/29/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4b-pcob3y3AmYJlPnREvyeTRzZ8zRIMP3fAxNoCNSKaY_Mv05UnR9QG53Sw3iJDBD4wq4h9P8=
K55QI86L8SlR9h_W58$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON   42488934 42519060 42629069 42739104 43119119 43269107
            43359120 43699125 43719091 44149091 44139030 44229028
            44228970 44488970 44478980 44658977 44658922 45038918
            44998896 45108894 45108859 45338868 45338840 45718837
            45708807 45758806 45708781 45428783 45348783 45378769
            45188772 45078758 45418736 45378676 45018697 44588736
            44318743 44198743 44098749 44108761 43908763 43868816
            43568816 43538842 43228840 43208897 42868899 42858936
            42488934=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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