Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jun 29 2025 19:59:03 AWUS01 KWNH 291957 FFGMPD KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-300100- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0552 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 356 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Areas affected...southeast Kansas through the Ozarks Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 291947Z - 300100Z Summary...Showers and thunderstorms developing along a surface trough and an accompanying outflow boundary will translate southeast through the afternoon. Rainfall rates in excess of 2"/hr are expected within this convection, leading to 2-3" of rain with locally higher amounts. Flash flooding is possible. Discussion...The GOES-E day-cloud phase RGB this afternoon indicates a rapid expansion of strengthening updrafts across much of southern Missouri. These updrafts are manifesting as strengthening thunderstorms, with two clusters noted via the regional radar mosaic. One of these is dropping out of southeast Kansas along an outflow boundary, while a second area is expanding across a surface trough in southeast Missouri. The low-level convergence driving this convection is moving into robust thermodynamics characterized by PWs nearing 2 inches overlapping MLCAPE of 3000 J/kg, leading to intense rain rates estimated via radar to be 2.5"/hr in some areas. Over the next few hours coverage should continue to expand across the area and track slowly to the southeast, although some more impressive organization through bulk shear of 20-30 kts may eventually result in a more progressive MCS as shown by the ARWs. Until then, the slow movement of cells combined with these intense rain rates may result in stripes of 2-3" of rain with locally higher amounts. The CAMs differ considerably in the evolution the next few hours, so confidence is reduced as to where the greatest potential for the heaviest rainfall will be. However, the slow southward advance of the strong CAPE gradient combined with the slow westward build of convection along the surface trough suggests south-central Missouri will become the focus of the heaviest and most prolonged rainfall this afternoon. This is potentially problematic as FFG in this area is most compromised to as low as 0.75-1.5"/3hrs, for which the HREF indicates has a 30-40% chance of exceedance. While the intense rain rates moving across any urban or more sensitive soils could cause flash flooding, the greatest risk will be across south-central Missouri where the the overlap of low FFG and highest rainfall may occur. Weiss ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_2Sp5JUSjnAydKLCKsLwn6k8OmzbH1bnn4PT0tgcT0-lJOtnEPj2crL2pKWPDGZJKZlq= Ttd_14q3GlAmNjZLNgPcVcI$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TOP... TSA... ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 38749475 38709411 38419304 38119227 37699172=20 37349091 37058988 36708936 36298969 36039087=20 36089305 36499483 36829558 37179640 37429720=20 38139668=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .