Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1507
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 29 2025 17:08:48

ACUS11 KWNS 291708
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291707=20
NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-SCZ000-291930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1507
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Areas affected...southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic Region

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 291707Z - 291930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for sporadic tree damage due to thunderstorm
downbursts will increase this afternoon as thunderstorms develop. A
watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing this afternoon within a
continued warm, moist, and uncapped airmass. Deep-layer shear and
tropospheric flow will remain rather anemic leading to slow moving
thunderstorms whose motion will be driven primarily by cold-pool
interactions and terrain features. Precipitable water values across
the area range from about 1.5 inches in the higher elevations of the
Appalachians to about 2 inches in the Chesapeake Bay area. The
combination of slow storm motions and high-precipitable water may
yield isolated, water-loaded downbursts capable of producing
sporadic tree damage. Given the isolated nature of the threat, a
watch is not anticipated.

...Marsh.. 06/29/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-rMtyq41saNzKY9XJN6NPToOMcX4oE9a1qSXGeeRRJwbUyhZPb-z9D1Z8M14S47Smlvi6b4dY=
Gjmfuyi18GkfpN46Ug$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   39557716 39777461 39357385 37917491 36937609 35937879
            35018295 35338406 38547936 39557716=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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