Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1506
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 29 2025 16:25:37

ACUS11 KWNS 291625
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291624=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-291830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1506
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Areas affected...eastern KS and western MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 291624Z - 291830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...An increasing threat for severe wind gusts may develop
into this afternoon with potential for an expanding cluster of
south-southeast moving storms along the Kansas-Missouri border.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...An initially small cluster of storms across
east-central KS has recently produced measured gusts of 47 kts at
TOP and 42 kts at FOE. While deep-layer winds/shear is marginal,
there is potential for thermodynamically driven cold pool
propagation along a gradient of differential boundary-layer
heating/MLCAPE. 12Z NSSL-MPAS runs appear to have well-handled this
initial development and suggest an expanding cluster may intensify
to the south-southeast. Recent HRRR runs have depicted this scenario
to an extent, albeit delayed and maintaining more compact clustering
into late afternoon. Given the weak background shear/forcing for
ascent, confidence is below average on whether a sufficient severe
wind threat will become apparent for downstream watch issuance.

...Grams/Hart.. 06/29/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_zkftN2fFV3omlX96NEis0QcA6pB0VvpzPXCwJas-pDe4OKIA0RQitU1cxYpw-BXmU3SXW8ew=
5S9Awcb3UcWKTPYGuc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   39089504 38849425 38199341 37649310 37149310 36689314
            36559395 36859484 37249575 37489665 37939684 38359657
            39089504=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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