Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jun 29 2025 13:43:11 AWUS01 KWNH 291343 FFGMPD ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-291930- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0549 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 942 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Kansas...Missouri...Far Southeast Nebraska... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 291345Z - 291930Z SUMMARY...Weakening convective complexes still have potential for additional 1-3" locally crossing areas already flooded this morning. Localized flash flooding still remains possible. DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um loop shows scattered re-activation of scattered thunderstorms/cooling tops extending from dying MCS/Squall line across SE NEB/IA moving into NE KS/NW MO all the way south across central MO to southeast MO where remaining isentropic ascent continues with scattered clusters. Upwind areas across E KS and SW MO remain conditionally unstable with ample deep layer moisture up to 1.75-2" of total PWats and capped CAPEs up to 2500 J/kg which will further increase with clearing skies. The old MCV with the leading convective complex/WAA regime continues to decouple and slide eastward through the deep layer flow across E MO, but the resulting LLJ still is fairly strong for the diurnal minimum with TWX/EAX/SGF VWP suite continuing to show solid 30-40kt decelerating confluent flow toward the old outflow/isentropic gradient across west-central to southeast MO still able to overcome the weaker capping to support the remaining convective clusters particularly on the confluent upwind edge from Bates to Miller county. Given the moisture flux and buoyancy, scattered cells/clusters will move with favorable orientation for short-term training as well as intersecting areas affected last night/this morning across south-central MO; given broad scattered Tcu across the Ozark Plateau, additional development may occur hear as well, expanding the risk for flash flooding rainfall totals (1-3") south and west of the already flooded areas in SE MO. Upstream, the strong outflow/squall line is intersecting the northern apex of the instability axis across NE KS and strong convergence along the leading edge is sprouting stronger/broader updrafts with cores that are back-shearing over the colder under-cutting air, suggesting increased overall duration of intense rainfall can be expected over the next hour or so. In addition, the squall line is merging with older more scattered WAA cells lingering from the prior wave in combination over the Kansas City Metro area. Propagation will be more due south than southeast given the available instability westward to the old track of rain; but a balance may be stuck for intersection of this newer 1.5-3" totals over areas having 1-3" this morning.=20 While overall coverage is likely to be more scattered in nature, the combination of rates over recently saturated grounds will continue the risk for a few more incidents of flash flooding through the next 3-5 hours as the LLJ further diminishes and capping further increases.=20=20 Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-mSwJJvnCo4nwUUGWVBMW7wbvzJSSu3EPvKTUpucSnhuvd1yVMTBIeM1Cz2iLFJIQTMa= vx2RZTzYXgucbjGzqeU5gmc$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...OAX...PAH...SGF...TOP... ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...NWC... LAT...LON 40559416 40209305 39449183 38279032 37498949=20 36958946 36739007 36799152 37249318 38109480=20 39259652 40109708 40509556=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .