Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 29 2025 09:43:37

AWUS01 KWNH 290943
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-291400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0548
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
542 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Areas affected...western Iowa, eastern Nebraska, far northwestern
Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290941Z - 291400Z

Summary...A convective complex across northeastern
Nebraska/northwestern Iowa will foster isolated flash flood
potential as it migrates southeastward across the discussion area
through 14Z/9a CDT.

Discussion...Latest radar mosaic imagery indicates a mature
convective complex extending from near Sheldon, IA southwestward
to near Norfolk, NE this morning.  Additional, isolated convection
was beginning to develop across southeastern Nebraska.  The storms
are being supported by strong mid-level lapse rates (~8C/km) and a
moist axis (1.4+ inch PW values) extending from northeastern
Nebraska south-southeastward toward Kansas City Metro.  Additional
storms across far southeastern Nebraska were being supported by
strong low-level convergence on the nose of 40-kt low-level flow
focused over central Kansas.  Most areas within this complex were
experiencing modest rain rates except for far northwestern Iowa,
where the orientation of cells were promoting 1.5 inch/hr rain
rates that were approaching FFG thresholds.

While the ongoing flash flood threat should remain fairly isolated
in the short term, some concern exists that this potential could
increase through 14Z/9a this morning.  The ongoing, mature MCS
should continue to migrate south-southeastward through abundant
mid-level instability, resulting in continued potential for 1-1.5
inch/hr rates at times.  Additionally, low-level convergence (and
resultant development) across southeastern Nebraska suggest that
the mature convective complex will eventually begin to foster
cellular mergers that locally prolong rain rates and boost
rainfall totals in a few locales.  FFG thresholds are in the 1.5-2
inch/hr range areawide, and as mergers become more common, these
thresholds should be breached on occasion.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6LylPw7-B2Mx1MTr6R90gwy5QWMUdHWA1F7Hq4ZsoJaZ44BVH-euHsQ7KTlgpjN4vmIX=
1Tk-Y63H2FWs8CUdCSZr3hU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON   43219519 42799437 41679387 40549364 39909428=20
            40129604 40529694 42199718 43089634=20

=3D =3D =3D
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