Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1504
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 29 2025 06:03:17

ACUS11 KWNS 290602
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290601=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-290800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1504
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Areas affected...Northwest Wisconsin...Southern Minnesota...Far
Northwest Iowa...Southeast South Dakota...Northeast Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475...476...

Valid 290601Z - 290800Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475, 476
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts will be possible along and just ahead of
the more intense parts of a line moving through the northern Plains
and upper Mississippi Valley. A brief tornado will also be possible.

DISCUSSION...A linear MCS is currently ongoing from northern
Nebraska northeastward into southern Minnesota and far northwest
Wisconsin. Ahead of the MCS, surface dewpoints are in the lower to
mid 70S F. The RAP shows moderate instability located ahead of the
line, with MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. In addition, the
WSR-88D VWPs at Sioux Falls and Minneapolis have 0-6 km shear near
35 knots, with some directional shear in the low-levels. This should
support a wind-damage threat with the more intense bowing line
segments embedded within the linear MCS. In addition, RAP forecast
soundings around 06Z just ahead of the line have 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity near and above 200 m2/s2. This will be
enough for a marginal tornado threat. The severe threat is expected
to continue as the MCS moves eastward, but should become more
isolated with time as instability begins to steadily drop across the
region.

...Broyles.. 06/29/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_NSMqn3yCkx-3d7PZZ_h_Py4nl-sBlp_Aug7-GLdR-fz97VsOUUWxwM-03lF6hemWyx8GhZHS=
lwZb9rCzZMEp8y3_7Y$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF...

LAT...LON   46009170 46129163 46349126 46219054 45849022 45369027
            44659080 43809235 43309381 43059486 42699620 42229759
            42209835 42349867 42589871 42999814 43499749 43989665
            44239594 44289444 44679350 45169276 45639208 46009170=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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