Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1503
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 29 2025 04:52:52

ACUS11 KWNS 290452
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290451=20
SDZ000-WYZ000-290545-

Mesoscale Discussion 1503
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Areas affected...Western South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 290451Z - 290545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A lone storm could persist for another couple of hours
while moving into western South Dakota, but the wind/hail threat is
expected to remain isolated and a watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A fairly long-lived storm with some supercell structure
has moved into northeast WY from southeast MT.  This storm is moving
within a post-frontal environment with gradually cooling surface
temperatures, so it will likely become more elevated with time.=20
Still, sufficient buoyancy and deep-layer vertical shear are present
to maintain the storm, and an associated wind/hail threat, for
roughly another two hours or so.  Since the storm is expected to
weaken beyond that time and the magnitude of the severe threat has
peaked or will do so soon, a downstream watch appears unlikely.

...Thompson/Guyer.. 06/29/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4dIq2DPbckCuOlRs9kq8sccCXqoG0wJSxD_ijr4l2zQQRLIJU16yqVtksXuMbj0UpPhCC0TkC=
8hbeDE5naBH0gc4its$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...

LAT...LON   44190233 44280350 44410411 44610429 44900424 45090376
            45090235 44790207 44350210 44190233=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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