Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1502
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 29 2025 03:55:03

ACUS11 KWNS 290354
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290354=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-290530-

Mesoscale Discussion 1502
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1054 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Areas affected...West central Wisconsin...southern Minnesota and
southeast South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 290354Z - 290530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms have evolved into a more linear mode, which
suggests a transition to more of a damaging wind/hail threat from
here onward.  A new severe thunderstorm may be needed by 05-06z from
southeast Minnesota into west central Wisconsin.

DISCUSSION...Earlier supercell clusters have evolved into a more
linear mode over the past 1-2 hours, with evidence of a weak
MCV/comma head north of Minneapolis.  Farther west, a more east-west
oriented band and an increasing low-level jet suggest continued
development as the aggregate cold pool sags southward.  Even farther
west, convection has developed recently along the cold front near
the NE/SD border, and this could be a precursor to additional storm
development/expansion into southeast SD overnight.  Midlevel lapse
rates remain quite steep from southern MN west-southwestward, while
wind profiles are more favorable for an organized/bowing segment
from Minneapolis northward (near an north of a subtle warm front).=20
Confidence in the details of convective evolution are not
particularly high, but enough threat for damaging winds and some
hail persists to potentially warrant one or more severe thunderstorm
watches into the overnight hours from west central WI across
southern MN to southeast SD.

...Thompson/Guyer.. 06/29/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4GDWzVe2LFOhsmA93wlGcktGTSpNM1zEEg4Dt9JQiILhjXAkeNSJT6qCQ3fNpWxeBsGjSKQ-w=
tgY-U_izalzbONZ3pY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF...

LAT...LON   45979276 46109230 45929168 45469169 44749194 44319260
            43809348 43459488 43299616 42859691 42709802 42899850
            43509845 43889778 43949540 44269413 45059319 45979276=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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