Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1499
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 29 2025 00:36:31

ACUS11 KWNS 290036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290035=20
SDZ000-290200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1499
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Areas affected...Southwest into south central South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473...

Valid 290035Z - 290200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for severe outflow gusts and wind-driven hail
should persist through 02z.

DISCUSSION...A persistent supercell with a history of 65-85 mph
outflow gusts and hail up to 1.75 inches in diameter continues to
move southeastward, loosely in tandem with the immediate cool side
of a weak surface cold front.  The 00z UNR sounding, combined with
regional surface observations, suggests this storm will remain in an
environment of sufficient buoyancy and vertical shear for storm
maintenance for the next couple of hours.  The observed storm
structure also suggests the combined potential for wind-driven hail
with severe outflow gusts on the right flank of the
heavy-precipitation supercell.

...Thompson.. 06/29/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!73EVj92rFjVfzQIw60vfMxDExCh53yZyiL4eT5Z_6lGzuoX-OBjOU3kpNrSC00hocSUi3_K55=
pstmwJBE79JyE4-Nfs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...

LAT...LON   43040070 43210127 43590170 43820163 43960100 43860052
            43660023 43439999 43070019 43040070=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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