Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1498
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 29 2025 00:34:36

ACUS11 KWNS 290032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290032=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-290200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1498
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Areas affected...far eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota

Concerning...Tornado Watch 474...

Valid 290032Z - 290200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 474 continues.

SUMMARY...Several maturing supercells will pose an increasing risk
for tornadoes this evening across far eastern SD into western MN. A
strong tornado is also possible.

DISCUSSION...Early this evening, several supercells have rapidly
organized in the vicinity of the MN/SD border across Tornado Watch
#474. The southern most of theses cells in Duel County, SD has
recently become tornadic as observed from video streams and storm
reports. As these supercells continue to mature and move east along
a broad warm frontal zone, they will continue to interact with
strong low-level shear (0-1 km SRH of 200 + m2/s2) observed from the
MPX and FSD VADs. With large buoyancy (MLCAPE >4000 J/kg) also in
place, the environment remains very supportive of supercells and
tornadoes, some of which could be strong given observed STP values
of 2-3. The tornado threat will remain highest with
discrete/semi-discrete supercells. Some upscale growth remains
possible later this evening, which could begin to limit the tornado
threat. But for the time being, a favorable storm mode and
environment suggest the threat for tornadoes is likely to increase
across far eastern SD into western MN this evening.

...Lyons.. 06/29/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5L50AlF-lzOCLadr9tWR0uXxQHRLutnEXkR4nbVF9yUO587rHqCyNWRsGzOSKQLHh4c38IggZ=
SE6zp05XvCI9ecC2Kw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   44719708 44439658 44409557 44569465 45299441 45709433
            45899484 45669597 45299641 44719708=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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