Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1497
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 28 2025 23:37:03

ACUS11 KWNS 282336
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282336=20
KSZ000-COZ000-290100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1497
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Areas affected...Western Kansas and southeast Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 282336Z - 290100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...High-based storms will be capable of producing a few
downbursts with strong-severe outflow gusts, but a watch is
unlikely.

DISCUSSION...High-based convection continues to form in a deeply
mixed environment with hot surface temperatures from southeast CO
into western KS, with new development likely with outflow mergers.=20
Inverted-V profiles will favor strong downbursts with isolated
severe outflow winds, but weak vertical shear suggests little to
organize the convection other than the spreading outflows.  As such,
the severe threat appears rather disorganized and should be confined
to the next 3 hours or so, so a watch appears unlikely.

...Thompson/Guyer.. 06/28/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6Y7t-4Egax2rQfWMVbeofLWWP1MWurzh7AgoU4iJW1bkupzNLCT8FaiPJ-W5B9vYN8o3yxxeJ=
D21SAi4Hbl2djNK-Zs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON   39830055 38850052 38120101 37410181 37120246 37150305
            37560318 37980305 38640197 39500174 39880144 39830055=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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