Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1496
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 28 2025 23:18:32

ACUS11 KWNS 282318
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282318=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-290045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1496
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0618 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Areas affected...Western Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 282318Z - 290045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Multicell clusters with isolated severe outflow gusts will
be possible, but the need for a watch is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...High-based storms have developed along a surface trough
from northeast CO into the NE Panhandle.  These storms are primarily
driven by surface heating/mixing, with new development expected
along convective outflows that spread eastward into the larger
buoyancy. The storms/clusters will be capable of producing
strong-severe outflow gusts in an environment with very steep
low-midlevel lapse rates and strong downdraft potential. However,
vertical shear is weak and storm organization/longevity will be
limited and the need for a watch is uncertain.

...Thompson/Guyer.. 06/28/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4NUB6J0IVOudnyJcVV2_Gm2GzVlRvlm7nty-TznmLxde2A0MaWSy1kMu9_6XNivexhigOy7J0=
GTZRasqqSvEM80QKC8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON   42500001 40980008 40100076 40090177 40780250 42140235
            42630242 42980216 43020030 42500001=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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