Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jun 28 2025 22:01:02 AWUS01 KWNH 282200 FFGMPD TXZ000-NMZ000-290300- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0544 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 600 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Areas affected...Southern New Mexico and West Texas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 282159Z - 290300Z Summary...Slow moving thunderstorms with 0.5"/hr rates or locally greater will continue across New Mexico and West Texas. This could produce as much as 0.75-1.25 inches of rain, leading to instances of flash flooding, especially across burn scars. Discussion...Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across southern New Mexico and West Texas this afternoon. This convection is expanding in response to favorable thermodynamics characterized by PWs of 1-1.4 inches, highest in West Texas, collocated with SBCAPE rising to 1000-2500 J/kg, highest in the High Plains of NM. In this environment, forcing is modest, but a shortwave is helping to enhance ascent that is otherwise primarily driven by upslope into terrain features and subsequent outflow boundaries in the pulse-convection environment. With PWs around the 90th percentile for the date, rainfall rates have been estimated via the local radars of around 0.5"/hr, and where these have occurred across recent burn scars, flash flood warnings are in effect. With a sharp gradient in moisture and instability in place across the area, convective coverage should remain generally isolated to scattered as reflected by available CAM simulated reflectivity. However, the presence of the shortwave could enhance ascent enough that storms become a bit more widespread than yesterday. In the pulse environment, this will result in outflows and storm mergers leading to additional development, with storm motions likely remaining chaotic and less than 10 kts using the Corfidi vectors as proxy. This will allow for heavy rain rates, which should exceed 0.5"/hr (>70% chance from the HREF) and may reach 1"/hr (UA WRF), especially during any mergers/collisions, to drift across the area through the aftn. Although general lifespans of these cells will be short, except during mergers, total rainfall could reach 1" or more in a few locations. This area is generally vulnerable to flash flooding. 1-hr FFG is only around 1", with even lower amounts likely needed to cause rapid runoff across sensitive terrain features and burn scars. Additionally, 7-day rainfall has been excessive at more than 600% of normal, further enhancing the vulnerability of the region as 0-40cm soils are saturated above the 98th percentile in many areas. While the burn scars will have the most sensitivity and potential for flash flooding, any slow moving cell with the most intense rates could result in impacts through this evening. Weiss ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4bkkhuMrVC7ZQQxNkLrq549efb7TuG7hfd8HwO28fsv4CmLpP8raU6A7bSZFpHzRgDZ-= HznrOl1N2OpS6Tex4-dSaqY$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF... ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC... LAT...LON 34730550 34690480 34370380 33280316 31870309=20 30970314 30880322 30350336 30270388 30470469=20 31030547 31720612 32010718 32150819 32380867=20 32740875 33110875 33400893 33630876 33630827=20 33850784 34060772 34390705 34610624=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .